foaltrack | up and coming by david harris

I have to think the outlook is good for any horse who has gone through his nw3x condition in just six starts, so Pinckney Hill remains one to watch after taming a decent bunch in a 9f turf allowance on Sunday. Pinckney Hill stalked an honest pace (he was 3rd by 2 after a half mile) and angled out and around at the end of the far turn. He was too strong for Lemon Cream Pie and gained the lead but was running awkardly on his left lead. When Rajiv Maragh got him to switch leads, he swerved right a bit, nearly coming into the path of the oncoming Sal the Barber. Sal the Barber closed well and was gaining some but Pinckney Hill was still running well at the end. The swerving out part stains the memory a bit, but all and all, Pinckney Hill won with sufficient authority.

The time was 1:45.33 and is legitimately impressive versus the three other turf races on the day. It was absolutely graded stakes quality. It also beat Paddy O’Prado (1:45.40), who was Saturday’s turf star on the teletimer when he won the Palm Beach. Paddy O’Prado’s mark is still more impressive than Pinckney Hill’s since Paddy O’Prado is a 3-year-old, however.

Runner-up Sal the Barber probably ran his best race since he was 2nd to Courageous Cat in the Hall of Fame Stakes at Saratoga. He did subsequently win the GIII Calder Derby in between off-the-board finishes in the Saranac and Hollywood Derby, but he was 1-2 odds in the Calder Derby, probably saying something about the field. This was the way you’d want a horse to come back after more than three months off, however.

Sal the Barber came from behind and was able to save ground on the far turn but may have lacked room briefly in the stretch. I also think Pinckney Hill may have bothered him slightly. He closed well and you can argue whether he was more impressive than Pinckney Hill or not. He also ran most, if not all, of the stretch on his left lead.

Pinckney’s Hill jump into stakes competition has been delayed by long recovery time from one start to the next. He debuted in January of ’09, then wasn’t seen again until May, then ran in July, October, January, and now March. Usually, a good horse that began his career 13 months ago and had made just six starts would have had a six or seven month break in there. As long as he doesn’t have that kind of break, the truth is that he runs as much as a good many horses, even never coming back sooner than six weeks.

Will we see him in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on Derby day next, or in a grade III? For now, I think he’s more a grade III horse. He doesn’t make you want to dance for joy when he’s done with a race.

Salaam Alaykum: Gulfstream, 3/7

Salaam Alaykum was a good-looking, nearly wire to wire winner of a one-mile turf maiden for 3-year-old fillies on Sunday. She opened up in the stretch and won under a hand ride. The final margin was 2 ½ lengths. Even though it looked like she drew off, the chart only has her up by 3 lengths at the stretch call, and I doubt her lead ever reached 4 lengths.

Perfect Shirl, out of grade I winner Lady Shirl and a half sister to grade I winner Shakespeare (as well as additional stakes winners Lady Shakespeare and Fantastic Shirl) was 2nd, with 2nd thru 5th fairly close. Perfect Shirl is by Perfect Soul: Charles Fipke supplying Perfect Soul with another top-quality mare. This was her debut, and Edgar Prado appeared to have a lot of horse as he waited behind a crowd on the backstretch.

The pedigree feast was filled out by English Channel and Sedgefield’s half sister, Wicked Charm, who debuted to 6th by 6, and Super Espresso, who at 1.1 million, more than doubled the price for any other Medaglia d’Oro yearling of 2008, and was 8th by 8 ½. These two fillies trailed by around 20 lengths after a quarter mile, which certainly increases optimism for next time, just on the theory that they didn’t know what they were doing early. Wicked Charm did get off to a noticeably bad start. Neither filly was frequently bet (26-1 on Wicked Charm, 10-1 on Super Espresso), and Wicked Charm didn’t sell particularly well at Keeneland April, bringing $190,000, although I believe after some pre-sale hype.

Salaam Alaykum has some nice pedigree of her own. The jury is still out on Saint Liam, although taking a benevolent view lately, but dam Our Legacy is a half sister to a number of good horses, most notably millionaire Guided Tour, who ran Beyers of 117, 117, and 113 winning graded stakes on the dirt in 2001. Our Legacy is by Kingmambo, which could be driving a turf preference.

Salaam Alaykum ran once before, at Saratoga on the dirt, finishing 17 ¼ lengths behind Kinsey, in a race that also included Awesome Maria, Ailalea, Atrea, and Roman Chestnut.

She was trained by Kiaran McLaughlin then, and is trained by Pletcher now. She’s owned and bred by Edward P. Evans.

The time for this race was only average. For a front-running winner who ran a first half mile in a solid 47, it’s hard to explain the time just in terms of competition that slowed it down. The good news is that Salaam Alaykum will presumably get away with some slower first half miles in the future, but if she can only finish in 48 on lightning turf courses, that won’t do her much good. She was a stylish enough winner that she’s still on my radar screen, however.

Ironman Jon: Aqueduct, 3/7

Here’s one we can paint with broad strokes and bright colors and one of the more interesting horses to come up through the New York-bred ranks in a while. This 4-year-old by Mineshaft added a 13 ¼ length shellacking of allowance foes to his 5-length win first time out. Even more exciting, he successfully stretched out from 6f to a mile and 70 yards.

In his debut, which came just over a month ago, he didn’t break well, then showed a special-looking burst of speed to go up by a few lengths early in the race. He just cruised early. He was on the stiff side in his lead change and ultimately won all out. I got the equivalency at 1:37 2/5 (1:37.56), so nothing special.

He again broke a little slowly on Sunday. He was from the outside post, and he again showed that high speed, bolting towards the lead. In fact, he seemed hard to handle, and he took the first time wider than he needed to. Things briefly looked problematic, but he settled about three-quarters off the lead in 2nd with the first four horses forming a tight pack. Freudian Storm and Ironman Jon then drew off before Ironman Jon disposed of Freudian Storm. He again was on the heavy side with his lead change. It was just a matter of how many lengths he would win by in the stretch. He ran under a hand ride before noticeably gearing down his stride, really cantering, over the final 70 yards at Dominguez’s command. The time for the mile was about a fifth better than the time for a mile and 70 yards, so it’s clear that the way Ironman Jon was ridden cost him a little. You had to think the equivalency would still be good with that margin of victory, and it was (1:35 2/5, 1:35.57). Outside of the New York-bred ranks, there are a lot of 4-year-olds running faster, though. You do have to like the improvement in the time from start one to two.

Despite the better figure in the route, and a willing finish, I actually like Ironman Jon better as a sprinter than a router. That early speed he has is what grabs me. The way he wanted to run off early might also not work against better horses. Finally, he’s out of a full sister to the brilliant Furiously (who won his first two starts by about the same combined margin as Ironman Jon has, and then added another romp in his 3rd race before stumbling in the Jim Dandy and Travers, and ultimately taking to the grass).

Up top, Ironman Jon is by Mineshaft. He’s a homebred owned by Barry K Schwartz and trained by Mike Hushion.

Beau Choix/Captain Canuck: Gulfstream, 3/6

What I perceived in this 8.5 furlong maiden on the turf for 3-year-olds was a winner who ran solidly and did everything he was asked to, and a debuting runner-up who closed like a major talent. Captain Canuck is really the reason I am writing. He’s a gelding owned by Centennial Farms (Niagara) Inc., not to be confused with the Centennial Farms that campaigned Corinthian and Colonial Affair, among others. Captain Canuck was a $230,000 yearling (Fasig Tipton July) and a $190,000 2-year-old (OBS February).

His female family is not exactly a conventional match for Pulpit: although his first four dams were all stakes horses, they did it in Michigan, where they run some of the slowest stakes. Captain Canuck’s dam Magna Cum Laude is by Pleasant Tap, but the dam sires before that are all the best of Michigan sires: Monetary Gift, Private Thoughts, and Rattle Dancer. You have another old Michigan sire, De Jeau, under the 4th dam. I’m afraid I’m probably the only one who understands the sheer improbability of anything coming to prominence out of a Michigan female family, but you’ll have to indulge me the space to try to convince you.

Captain Canuck breaks off the family tradition of Michigan breeding; he’s bred in Canada, and based on what I saw on Saturday, he’s my pick for the Queen’s Plate.

Captain Canuck broke somewhat slowly from the 5 post, then was squeezed a bit. He came out almost cantering, putting all his hopes in a late run. He was 10th by 10 ½ lengths after a quarter mile. He was out of the TV picture for most of the early going. On the lead, 88-1 Platinum Hunter was not setting a good pace, going 4f in just 48.68, and 6f in just 1:13.28. Keep in mind that this was a fast course that produced a 9f time in the 1:45s, another in the 1:46s, and a 8.5f time in the 1:40s earlier in the day. So the early fractions took nothing out of the decent horses in the race, and Captain Canuck had among the most work to do.

He seemed to pick up the pace immediately when asked with an eye-catching move. He was wide around the far turn, even very wide, and that was the difference between winning and losing. He was a bit late changing leads and still had a lot to do at the 1/8th pole (5th by 2 ½ according to the chart). He was full of run and came up ¾ of a length short. This was a good move, and a long move, making it all the more impressive.

Captain Canuck went off 26-1. I can see that, as he’s probably not the precocious, speed type that draws attention in the mornings. Connections of course are the number one factor behind betting on firsters, and Captain Canuck is trained by Josie Carroll and ridden by Eibar Coa.

On pedigree, I really don’t see why he couldn’t run on the dirt, although Pulpits do like the grass. The female family seems solidly dirt. He certainly figures to be running a lot of his races on Woodbine’s Polytrack.

The winner, Beau Choix, is a well-bred horse, being by Elusive Quality out of Belle Cherie. Belle Cherie began as a graded stakes winner on grass and took dirt races such as the Top Flight as an older runner. She could be absolutely brilliant on her best day. She’s half sister to Octave, who was of course one of the best fillies in Rags to Riches’ crop. Belle Cherie has produced the minor stakes winner Last Best Place.

Beau Choix was making his 4th start. He was 3rd on grass to begin, then 5th on dirt, then 2nd on grass to Lonesome Street, who is better than your average maiden special weight winner. Beaux Choix is a Triple Crown nominee, so his people evidently liked him somewhat. Trained by Barclay Tagg, as Last Best Place was.

I thought Beau Choix also appeared sharper than the average maiden winner. He was 5th by 2 ½ after a half mile, so didn’t have the ideal placement with the slow pace. His move for the lead was pretty swift, and he was about 4 wide around the far turn. He had a brief battle to establish the lead. Captain Canuck was gaining on him late, but I would still say this was a measured win. I came away thinking that Beau Choix might be able to do the same against better.

The final time of 1:42.26 was not an encouraging piece of this puzzle. Even the last half of the race, the final 4 ½ furlongs in 53.58, may have been the day’s weakest for that interval, and nowhere near as impressive as the final 5f in the two grade III stakes for 3-year-olds.

The race looks much better when it’s broken down to the final 5/16ths in 28.98, however. A nw2x for older at the same distance went 1:11.66 with a 28.88 finish , so clearly we’re not talking about anything really sharp for Beau Choix and co. The nw2x horses went much faster early and yet finished up in about the same time. One positive for this race is that the field appeared of decent quality and deep, going by the past performances.

Friend Or Foe/Green Monster: Gulfstream, 3/6

Probably even a more conspicuous 2nd in a maiden at Gulfstream was the memorably named Green Monster, who still seemed out of touch with the field turning for home in a 5 ½ furlong maiden, yet finished furiously to claim 2nd, 2 lengths behind Friend Or Foe. Since he was far back, the only glimpses of Green Monster on television during the race were: a break a length or two behind the field; a succeeding quick retreat as if he was taken by surprise by the race; the one shot of him straggling way behind at the top of the stretch; and the special-looking finish on the outside. His chart line will read: 10th by 13, 11th by 13 ¼, 9th by 7 ¼, and 2nd by 2. The most flattering aspect is the improvement from the second call, which was taken after 3/8ths of a mile, to the wire. There’s nothing misleading about the 13+ length deficit: the field was bunched at the top, and Green Monster was 4 lengths behind the second-to-last horse at that point.

Green Monster was making his debut, as was Friend Or Foe. That one ran close to the lead early. He seemed to need to be asked to keep up and to move to the lead. I thought he looked his best in the stretch – pretty classic. He may like long distances, and this was a rank sprint, 5 ½ furlongs.

Friend Or Foe and Green Monster comprised a New York-bred exacta. I was startled to see that at Gulfstream; New York-breds don’t leave New York much, certainly not when they’re maidens. It seems to me there’s maybe one New York-bred maiden winner at Gulfstream all year, and in this race, it was a New York-bred exacta.

Friend Or Foe is by Friends Lake, who has been a quiet sire, but does support success at longer distances, anyway. Friend Or Foe is a half to a couple of New York-breds who have been useful but nothing more: Dixieland Star, and Stolen Star. At least it’s an Unbridled mare, and Friend Or Foe did show some Unbridled to him in his finish.

Green Monster is by Songandaprayer. I don’t expect his horses to become top runners, and there’s a distance question with them, too. Obviously, he’s done better commerically than a very large percentage of sires starting out in his position, however, so he deserves respect.

Green Monster is a half brother to Turnofthecentury, a New York-bred who won the Empire Classic and is now a stallion, and Noteasybeinggreen, a talented horse who never won a stake but was 2nd in the Cowdin when it was grade II. Being kin to Turnofthecentury gives some hope for distance; I don’t remember him as being brilliant at all, as Green Monster might be. A Turnofthecentury with high speed would be good.

It’s questionable if Friend Or Foe and Green Monster will become veterans and rivals in the New York-bred stakes program after beginning their careers in the same race at Gulfstream. The number one impediment is that Marty Wolfson trains Green Monster, so he may not venture to New York.

Ah, I almost forgot to pass along my analysis of the time, believe it or not. A 1:36 3/5 (1:36.77) equivalency, a bit below-average for the condition.

Souma: Gulfstream, 3/5

Of all of the strange ways to pick a horse, I may have uncovered a new one: particularly impressive performance after losing the rider. Actually, I can remember Starrer losing her rider as the odds-on favorite in the Coaching Club American Oaks and finishing 10 lengths in front of the field, and taking something from that. There have certainly been other cases like that in recent years, and grizzled racing fans tell the chuckling newcomers to give what they see no heed.

My attention to Souma last time was particularly odd, because it didn’t involver her winning the race after losing the rider, but instead shooting out for the lead with such speed that it caught my eye. As silly as it was, it seemed to me that even considering that she lost the rider, she showed unusual early speed. I suppose it’s possible that I’ve seen enough riders thrown over the years to have an unconscious baseline for how fast horses typically go in that situation. Or maybe my observation was irrelevant, and Souma gave no hint last time of what she would do today.

This was the 3-year-old filly’s 6th try at breaking her maiden, including the wasted one of four weeks ago when she ducked the gap coming out of the gate. She ran once a month in August, September, and October, with Beyers of 14, 42, and 11, and of course didn’t come anywhere close to winning. Back at Gulfstream on January 10, she took on about as easy a maiden special weight as a speed horse could, a 5f off-the-turfer, and she improved to a 60 Beyer, and was 2nd by just a half length. Then came the race where she lost Joe Bravo.

Souma drew the #5 post here against what looked a moderate field, excepting 1-2 favorite A Plus. She stumbled but was still quick to the lead. Elvis Trujillo let her run early and she was relaxed. She had a clear lead very soon out of the gate and the whole way; she was always up by more than a length. In the stretch, she had good energy while given strong encouragement. She remained strong to the end of the 6f race. The final margin was 5 ¼ lengths.

My dominant impression was that this is one fast filly; that if you asked her to race at a quarter, or a half mile, she would fare very well. Given her history, the question is if she’ll be able to consistently withstand pressure and amount to something, or if she’ll just flash speed. This could be a case of a completely successful operation for a breathing problem; who knows? I should mention that Souma only made the lead at the first call in one of her first four races; she was 2nd twice, and 3rd once. That form made it harder for me to reconcile how fast she seemed on the day that she lost her rider. The time here was good; an equivalency of 1:36 1/5 (1:36.39).

I was excited to see A Plus run. I had liked her debut in September every bit as much as I had liked Trappe Shot’s. She went off the 1.75-1 favorite that day, broke slowly, and showed the same kind of internal speed that Trappe Shot did. She’s also by Smarty Jones, and while his horses have been an exercise in frustration, I’m rooting for him to get a big one.

A Plus ran for Tony Dutrow after Jimmy Jerkens was her trainer for her debut. Except for not breaking well, she ran a very different race than in her debut. She appeared sluggish and to be throwing her head in the air for the first quarter mile or so. Larry Collmus correctly noted that Jeremy Rose was having to motivate her. She never gave a burst but somehow made up ground on the horses other than Souma, gradually making her way forward to 2nd at the wire. Part of me thinks that if she could run that ugly and still run 2nd in a decent time, that she must have a lot of ability. She seemed out of sorts.

Souma is a Zayat/Zito horse. She cost $250,000 as a yearling, which is certainly solid, but statistically in the range of average for 2007 and 2008 Mr. Greeley yearlings. Her female family doesn’t get my pulse racing; the dam, Mountain Bonfire, is a Canadian-bred Mt. Livermore who never raced. Mr. Greeley and Mt. Livermore were both sprinters, and Souma doesn’t appear to have strong distance possibilities.

Tanda: Santa Anita, 3/5

Tanda has given the same performance three times at this meet, and it’s resulted in a maiden and allowance score, as well as a well-beaten 2nd to Rose Catherine in a non-graded stake. All three of the races have been at 6 ½ furlongs on the turf, too. On Friday, Tanda got good stalking position then took a while to wear down Vanishing Grey and Sweet Hanni before pulling clear to score by a length and a quarter.

My notes from Tanda’s maiden win said that she didn’t “explode,” and that’s the criticism I would have, and maybe why she wasn’t competitive with an outstanding horse like Rose Catherine. Tanda wears down her opponents.

The danger in this race was that, while Tanda had the momentum to carry her to victory, she moved over into Vanishing Grey. Aside from flirting with disqualification, she risked losing her momentum, at least when Alex Solis avoided the contact. Solis veered her away from Vanishing Grey, and the convergence ended up not being a problem.

The Santa Anita course is probably slower than it has been at points during the meet. Tanda outran older nw2l starter males, 1:13.55 to 1:13.86. It certainly wasn’t a given that 3-year-old allowance fillies would have the better of that comparison, so that speaks well for Tanda. Tanda’s time also beat Crossing the Line (1:13.59) the day before, Crossing the Line being the 2007 Del Mar Mile winner, who was getting his first win since in a $25,000 claimer. Somewhat less encouraging is that the field was bunched behind Tanda, with 3 lengths from 2nd to 9th.

Tanda has a big, long, fluid stride on her, which has been her main appeal. That and her one-paced style would seem to suggest that she would improve going longer. Her pedigree (Sweetsouthernsaint out of a Dr. Caton mare) far from precludes this. As she’s been kept at 6 ½ furlongs, there may be something trainer Dan Hendricks knows that I don’t. Then, too, Tanda has been successful, and when you can start as the 13-10 favorite, why not stick with what has worked? Now that she’s gone through her first allowance condition, though, the races are going to get tougher, and she will need to elevate her game.

Speak Easy Gal/Salve Germania: Gulfstream, 3/4

When Salve Germania (IRE) surged late to take the grade II Ballston Spa Handicap at Saratoga as the rank outsider in her American debut, some may have credited the upset to the soft turf. Salve Germania’s only other foray in North America in 2009 was just fair, a 5th by 8 in the rich E P Taylor. So the jury was very much out on what kind of a mare this was when Thursday’s nw2x allowance began. Salve Germania took on five group stakes in France and Germany in 2008 and 2009, but could do no better than one 3rd.

Salve Germania came up a head short, but prep races are one time when the bottom line is secondary. She experienced a moderate amount of trouble, first having to steady on the turn, costing her position, and then being squeezed slightly when coming between horses in early stretch. The pace in the race also accelerated moderately, favoring the horses on or near the pace, which didn’t include Salve Germania: she was last before the field hit the first turn, and 8th by 4 after a ¼. But it wasn’t some calculation of lengths lost minus lengths beaten that mark Salve Germania as one to watch. It was an absolutely fantastic-looking close, a European-style close. She cut the distance late between herself and Speak Easy Gal in a very short period of time, and Speak Easy Gal did not appear to be stopping, and had 2 ¼ lengths on 3rd in an 11-horse field. I also didn’t see that Salve Germania gave a delayed response, so ultimately I have to blame the trip or the ride for the defeat. This looked like a mare capable of beating much better, just as she did last August.

Speak Easy Gal has already had an excellent meet, beginning with a 2nd by 1 ¼ to subsequent Suwannee River winner Tottie, then taking her nw1x in her first start for Marty Wolfson with some flair. Although she began her career in two maiden claiming races, once she hit the turf she was an instant success. She now has a career record on the turf of three wins in five starts, with the two losses both in-the-money finishes. She lay off the leader here in 2nd and 3rd, took over after 6f, and held on.

The final time came with a built-in excuse because the early pace was a little too slow for the horses to run their fastest. If a performance is good enough, however, the figure will still sometimes come out strong despite the inherent disadvantage. That was not the case here; the figure looks below-average for the class by approximately the margin that I would expect, given the slow pace. This gives me more pause about Speak Easy Gal than it does about Salve Germania, both because Speak Easy Gal was closer to the pace and therefore less disadvantaged, and because I didn’t see anything outstanding in the way that she won the way that Salve Germania’s rally was outstanding.

If Salve Germania dispelled the idea that she is a soft-turf specialist today, a remaining explanation for why she has appeared so much better in America is that all of her European races were a mile and a quarter or longer. She was pegged as a stayer and may not have been one. The Ballston Spa was a mile and a sixteenth, as was today’s race. The E P Taylor was a mile and a quarter, and Salve Germania reverted to her disappointing form. I would still consider a generic preference for American racing as a more likely explanation for the turnaround than a preference for shorter races. In fact, it is easy to think Salve Germania will be more reliable at longer distances where she has more margin for error.

IEAH purchased Salve Germania after her Ballston Spa victory. Pletcher is her trainer.

Some Stakes Figures

Misremembered, SA H., 1:34 2/5 (1:34.49)
Understatement, Stymie, 1:34 3/5 (1:34.60)
Win Willy, Razorback, 1:34 4/5 (1:34.86)
Wall Street Wonder, Toboggan, 1:35 (1:35.00)
Freedom Star, Azeri, 1:35 (1:35.09)
Awesome Act, Gotham, 1:35 1/5 (1:35.26)
Castaneda, Capossela, 1:35 4/5 (1:35.82)
Sangaree, Joe Hernandez, 1:35 4/5 (1:35.99)
Alphie's Bet, Sham, 1:36 (1:36.10)
Crisp, SA Oaks, Pace too slow